Falling For Confirmation Bias

 

Been out driving again! No, not really. This is a photo I took like 18 years ago driving through Amish country in Pennsylvania. I thought it was striking with the different colored bumpers and car pieces.

We're in Arenal at the volcano at our usual place.

Yeah, this joint.

Today we got into our car, our old Honda CR-V that's been having some issues for sometime. We'd already ordered parts for the transmission solenoid so that it could be worked on this summer after our daughter's wedding. But it's not to be, coming down off the mountain the transmission started acting most strangely. It would not go into gear, at all. You could turn it off and then turn the car back on and put it in gear. You'd have first and second gears for five minutes or so, then the gears would drop out again.

We immediately went to a highly recommended repair shop here. They drove it and said that the gears were all burned up, the transmission is all flubbed up. Total transmission replace and they don't do that. They agreed to store the car for a few weeks while we decide what to do.

After walking around the downtown area, visiting the chocolate shop and several others places we were pretty resigned to selling it as is here. It's worth about 2K here without a working transmission. Took a local friendly taxi back up to the hotel. Made arrangements for a flight tomorrow back to Tama where we have a spare car, our pal's who is storing it at our house. 

I went for a nice long walk back up to our bungalow, got lost a few times in the almost jungle that surrounds the hotel. Fell down a total of like four times today. I woke up by falling out of bed. Go me. So right now I'm sorry, sore and bruised, but not displeased to have traipsed around alone and making it up the mountain.

Once we were settled back in the bungalow with our bruises and disappointments Jim's pal Davey started calling, arguing with Jim that he'd fix it up just fine and dandy with the parts we ordered from the States. I stayed out of it, rolling my eyes off to the side listening to Jim point out the reality of the car being kaput, and Davey insisting no to the point where he said if we got the parts and had them installed he'd buy it for 3K.

I think Davey is completely full of shit. I've thought so for a very long time now. He's one of those hard core Evangelical Christians like the ones I've been writing about in my book about my time in my old Fundigelical Charismatic church. Davey has a lot of esteem for his very own ideas above everyone else, including having that thing I hate the most in that world - Evangelical Hubris, or Confirmation Bias.

Davey is insisting the car is salvageable. It's old, it has close to 300K on the engine, the transmission has been not right for over two years and we've had it worked on again and again, but Davey is right, or so he insists in increasingly frantic words. Keep in mind Davey is not a mechanic. 

This is such a typical thing in Fundigelical Town thinking you know everything, or can do everything and ending doing a half assed job.

Jim now sees that Davey is full of shit, but I don't know what he's going to do about the car. It's in his hands now because I don't know enough about Honda transmissions to know if Davey is right or wrong. My gut is telling me he's horribly wrong.

Know your own strengths and your own limits. I know mine. One lady I know down our road knew I had a pile of sewing machines and I made quilts. She wanted me to alter clothing for her and her own daughter. I had to point out that the alterations she's wanting are hard ones, and it's been positively years since I did that type of alteration, so I wasn't comfortable taking on the task. I said no. Yeah, I know, baby steps forward for me. The old churchy me would have said yes and likely botched the job. 

Knowing this self same lady was in a local little theater production of a Broadway musical here last week I had low expectations. Why? I figured there might be just a smidgen of Evangelical hubris going on because I knew how quiet and timid this woman was. I could not imagine her on stage while singing and acting. I knew she could sing church music, but had no idea about the acting ability.  I am happy to report I was extremely wrong. She was absolutely amazing in her role. She knows what she's capable of on the stage.


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